Global Economic Review – 11 Oct 2014

  • World Bank cut its growth forecast for developing East Asia to 6.9% for 2014 and 2015 from 7.1% (forecasted in April).
  • US unemployment slipped to its 6-year low of 5.9% in September from 6.1% in August. Meanwhile, US non-farm payrolls increased by 248,000 in September, exceeding the market consensus of 210,000. As a result, the Dollar was close to its 4-year high.
  • The US Fed in its FOMC minutes (September 16-17) said that the current stance is appropriate amid concerns of global growth and the possibility of a stronger Dollar weighing on the US economy.
  • European Central Bank (ECB) maintained status quo with key policy rate unchanged at 0.05%. It unveiled the details of its purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds, scheduled to commence from mid-October.
  • China’s non-manufacturing PMI contracted to 54.0 in September vs. prior print of 54.4 in August.
  • Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept monetary policy unchanged, maintaining its pledge to expand the monetary base at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion Yen.
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its world growth forecast to 3.8% YoY for next year (2015) vs. its July forecast of 4%.
  • Japan’s current account remained in surplus for the second consecutive month, at JPY 130.8 bn.
  • On the geopolitical front, reports suggest that IS-rebels aim to capture the town of Kobane (on Turkey-Syria border). Meanwhile, US continued airstrikes to try and prevent the same.
  • Bank of England (BoE) maintained status quo, keeping the key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and asset purchase program at GBP 375 bn.
  • Ebola virus continues to spread globally, and effective controls have yet to be found.

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