Inflation surge is possible – Dr. Mark Mobius

Much of the money (from QE from US Fed and other Central Banks) has remained on the commercial banks’ balance sheets, much to chagrin of the central bankers who wanted the banks to initiate lending so the economies would revive. Some of the money has also been diverted into the equity markets as well as property and other tangible assets such as commodities.

The low interest rates we see globally in many markets now disadvantage regular bank deposit savers and pensioners, while the equity holders have generally benefited as the surviving banks have grown bigger, and perhaps are now in the “too big to fail” territory. The savers who have suffered with low interest rates could be hit with another problem of high inflation down the road. Although inflation has generally remained low in the markets where central banks have been engaging in easing measures, many —including me— believe that once the banks gain the confidence to begin lending aggressively again, inflation will likely rise. This, of course is a double-edged sword. Countries battling deflationary forces, including Japan and the Eurozone — would welcome inflation. But the flip side is that inflation can quickly spiral out of control, and it can hit emerging market economies particularly hard, as a higher proportion of their consumers’ budgets go to basics like food and fuel.
– Dr. Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group

Please see this article for more details.

Dr. Mark Mobius earned Bachelors and Masters degrees from Boston University, and a Ph.D. in economics and political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

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