Monday, 02 April 2012: China reported positive news on their industrial production over the past weekend, which should give some positive support for global markets and commodities. The current Crude oil price of $105 is about $30 more than its 5 year futures, which indicates that crude oil prices can come down if favorable political events take place to reduce middle-east geo-political tensions, but the chances of such positive events is slim, so we will have to work with constant upward movement in crude oil prices till some event creates genuine risk to crude oil prices.
As of now, a significant amount of risk capital has moved into crude oil, because global economic growth scenario looks more likely than global recession. Meanwhile, Natural Gas prices have been hitting 8 year lows, and huge price variations from $2 per mmbtu in USA to $8 per mmbtu in India/Asia because it is not mobile like crude oil. Continue reading