Sensex 10 Year Chart with Trendline -April 2014


The latest upmove in Sensex, in March 2013, has taken it past the 10 year trendline that was acting as the resistance (since 2011) on the upside at around 21300 (Nifty 6300). Now, the same trendline will act as support. Historically, all levels below the trendline have been a profitable for buying, and the Sensex has taken off after crossing this trendline in the last two occassions since 2004, after doing a test of its support strength. So there maybe a 5-10% correction before the next big upmove comes through. The major gainers will be the stocks linked to business cycles, like Banks, Financials, Energy, Materials, which are currently driving the Sensex higher. However, Indian market can not make and hold new highs if other countries are falling down. Global equity markets are correlated because Risk-on and Risk-off trades are playing across equity markets at the same time. A sharp rise of USD against other currencies is probably the biggest risk to Sensex upmove.