Category Archives: Forex Trading

High Yield Bond Market Pressure in 2016

High yield bonds (funded by multiple rounds of QE) will definitely put pressure on the global financial system this year. I believe over $1 trillion of QE went into energy related bonds (in US and Europe), and nobody had thought of $30 oil plus strong US Dollar. Euro and Rupee/INR will be at risk from a stubbornly strong US Dollar. Zero debt companies with substantial earnings in USD like Google, Infosys, McDonalds maybe the safest places in market in 2016. Stay long on USD. Energy and Materials stocks should be handled only by advanced traders. There maybe many sharp corrections and short-covering rallies.

The bond market is going to get ugly if there isn't a rebound soon Continue reading High Yield Bond Market Pressure in 2016

Nifty cracks below 8500, closes at 8462

Continued bad news from China, and weak earnings of large caps caused correction in Nifty, as Nifty cracks below 8500, and closes at 8462. On the international front, The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allowed the yuan to depreciate almost 2 percent against the US dollar to levels last seen 3 years ago, sending a shock through global Forex markets. Indian investors are worried about impact of devaluation of Chinese currency. India’s largest bank State Bank of India (SBI) reported a mixed set of results. Net Profits beat market estimates but NPAs were a bit higher than last year. SBI Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya is confident that there will be a decline in NPAs. She pointed towards certain cyclical factors that affect SBI in the first quarter (April-June), and that NPAs have always shown up in the first quarter and going forward SBI is seeing reduction of stressed loans. SBI stock fell by 5% and closed 269. As expected, it was a high volume day for SBI. At P/E 11, the stock is attractively valued for investors who believe economic recovery is possible in 1-2 years from today.