High yield bonds (funded by multiple rounds of QE) will definitely put pressure on the global financial system this year. I believe over $1 trillion of QE went into energy related bonds (in US and Europe), and nobody had thought of $30 oil plus strong US Dollar. Euro and Rupee/INR will be at risk from a stubbornly strong US Dollar. Zero debt companies with substantial earnings in USD like Google, Infosys, McDonalds maybe the safest places in market in 2016. Stay long on USD. Energy and Materials stocks should be handled only by advanced traders. There maybe many sharp corrections and short-covering rallies.
Tag Archives: crude oil prices
Iran Oil Deal
On 24 Nov 2013, Iran, USA and five other countries struck a deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for an easing of the sanctions against Iran. This may have significant implications for India which was Iran’s second-largest importer of oil. The easing of sanctions against Iran should result in lower oil prices, which will benefit India. However, as global demand for Iranian oil increases, Iran will become less dependent on India, and may stop accepting Indian rupees as part payment for oil and may favor trade with countries paying fully in US dollars.
Crude Oil Prices and Global Economic Recovery
Monday, 02 April 2012: China reported positive news on their industrial production over the past weekend, which should give some positive support for global markets and commodities. The current Crude oil price of $105 is about $30 more than its 5 year futures, which indicates that crude oil prices can come down if favorable political events take place to reduce middle-east geo-political tensions, but the chances of such positive events is slim, so we will have to work with constant upward movement in crude oil prices till some event creates genuine risk to crude oil prices.
As of now, a significant amount of risk capital has moved into crude oil, because global economic growth scenario looks more likely than global recession. Meanwhile, Natural Gas prices have been hitting 8 year lows, and huge price variations from $2 per mmbtu in USA to $8 per mmbtu in India/Asia because it is not mobile like crude oil. Continue reading Crude Oil Prices and Global Economic Recovery