Continued bad news from China, and weak earnings of large caps caused correction in Nifty, as Nifty cracks below 8500, and closes at 8462. On the international front, The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allowed the yuan to depreciate almost 2 percent against the US dollar to levels last seen 3 years ago, sending a shock through global Forex markets. Indian investors are worried about impact of devaluation of Chinese currency. India’s largest bank State Bank of India (SBI) reported a mixed set of results. Net Profits beat market estimates but NPAs were a bit higher than last year. SBI Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya is confident that there will be a decline in NPAs. She pointed towards certain cyclical factors that affect SBI in the first quarter (April-June), and that NPAs have always shown up in the first quarter and going forward SBI is seeing reduction of stressed loans. SBI stock fell by 5% and closed 269. As expected, it was a high volume day for SBI. At P/E 11, the stock is attractively valued for investors who believe economic recovery is possible in 1-2 years from today.
While the bullish rally of Nifty hitting lifetime high 6700 is welcome, and it has given good profits on long-positions on beaten down stocks like SBI, DLF, etc, the concern is that Nifty is now rising while momentum is falling, and the momentum of the current rally is still lower than the momentum of Nifty rally in Sep 2013. Life time high with lower-grade momentum is not a good sign. Conclusion: unless momentum picks up in April, Nifty may come down to 6300 in April.
Market mood was negative on account of Japan Earthquake and ongoing unrest in Libya and middle east region and constant threat of spike in crude oil prices.
In the week closing 11 March 2011, the Indian stock Index S&P CNX Nifty traded in a tight range of 5560-5410. Nifty closed in red in three out of five trading days. Week-on-week basis, the Sensex was down by 312 points or -1.7%, to close at 18174.39 levels. The Nifty also closed in the red down by 93 points, or 1.7%, to close at 5445 for the week. Metals, Capital Goods and Banking stocks were the major losers, with heavy weights like Tata Steel, L&T, BHEL, State Bank faced selling pressure, where as Reliance Industries and Reliance Capital were the major gainers. Food inflation for the week ended Feb 26, 2011 was 9.52% (v/s 10.39% last week). IIP numbers were positive in India. In Feb 2011, exports were $23.6 bn (49.8% growth YoY) while imports were $31.7 bn (21.2% gr wth YoY). IIP nos for Jan 2011 came at 3.7% (street estimates: 2.7%) while the December IIP was revised from 1.6% to 2.5%. Continue reading Stock Market Analysis – 12 March 2011