The US Fed QE tapering and its potential consequences have kept the global markets busy over the last 2 weeks. If the US Fed QE taper continues on its planned path, we may see higher interest rates in the USA by July 2014 along with US Dollar appreciating against other currencies of the emerging markets.
It will be a very challenging task for the Emerging Markets (EMs) to keep their currencies stable in the face of QE tapering, because its difficult to estimate just how many billions USD will move back from emerging markets back to developed markets like USA in this process.
Countries like India may be forced to raise interest rates to control inflation and keep the currency stable, even though it will further hurt the domestic economy of India, and put downward pressure on Indian GDP growth. Continue reading Market Analysis Feb2014→
Goldman Sachs Nifty ETF (the best ETF for Nifty investments in India) has been moving is a reliable envelope for last 2 years. Current downside during year 2014 is 575, which would coincide with Nifty 5700. Upside band is at 675, which would coincide with Nifty 6700. That’s the 1000 point range for Nifty in year 2014. A visit to 5700 can happen by end-March 2014. There further downside targets till Nifty 5400, which may also materialize in case of sudden market sell-off. Therefore, Nifty investors must remain cautious, holding adequate Put options till June-July to protect long positions, which in turn should payoff in later part of 2014.
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