Our analysis says we are likely to see positive moves in most of the global stock markets in the first half of 2011. The first half of 2011 will be volatile with upwards bias, and the second half will have a downward bias.
China raises interest rate by 0.25 percent
The benchmark interest rate in China was last reported at 5.81 percent. In China, interest rates decisions are taken by The Peoples’ Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee. The PBC administers two different benchmark interest rates the benchmark lending rate, which is the one year PBC lending rate and the benchmark rate of central bank lending that is the rediscount rate.
This increase in interest is a good sign that China’s economy is poised for more growth and they want to control inflation that will accompany that growth. This interest rate should be seen positively for all global commodities even if there is a downward reaction in short term.
“These policy moves could be front-loaded in coming months, as headline inflation figures remain high and economic growth faces overheating risks early next year,” said Wang Qian, the brokerage’s Hong Kong-based chief China economist.
Indian Stock Market: Both FIIs and DIIs are Selling
For the last two days (Dec 6 and Dec 7), something uncommon is happening in the Indian Stock Market: Both FIIs and DIIs are selling! (Dec 6: 500 crore net sell; Dec 7: 1000 crore net sell). This is uncommon because one of the two parties usually acts as net buyer when the other party is net seller.
In an entire year, we may not see more than 10-15 such days. It means all large players are seeing a need to cut their equity positions for whatever reasons. Till the FIIs start buying, we urge our readers to be cautious and not buy any new stocks or buy any new stocks at higher end of valuation like 52 week high, because profits are being taken out across the board. The best confirmation to start buying is when the FIIs start buying since they contribute to about 67% of the Indian stock market volume.